By Lew Kizer — 2026-10-24 — Prepared Food Trends
The short answer
The USDA Economic Research Service's Food Price Outlook released October 23, 2026 forecasts all food prices up 2.8% in 2026, food at home up 2.3% and food away from home up 3.5%. Beef and veal are forecast up 8.7% and eggs down 29.3%. For 2027, USDA forecasts all food up 1.7%, with wide uncertainty.
Key facts
- Released Oct. 23, 2026, using September 2026 Consumer and Producer Price Index data.
- 2026 forecast: all food +2.8%, food at home +2.3%, food away from home +3.5%.
- Beef and veal +8.7% (range 7.4% to 10.1%); eggs −29.3%.
- 2027 forecast: all food +1.7%, food at home +1.0%, food away from home +2.8%.
- August to September 2026: beef and veal −1.3%, eggs +1.0%, all food +0.1%.
- BLS average price of 100% ground beef: $6.792 a pound in September 2026.
KINGSPORT, Tenn., Oct. 24, 2026 — The government's monthly forecast of what Americans will pay for food came out Thursday, and the story is split: beef keeps climbing while eggs have collapsed from last year's highs.
The forecast
| Category | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| All food | +2.8% | +1.7% |
| Food at home | +2.3% | +1.0% |
| Food away from home | +3.5% | +2.8% |
| Beef and veal | +8.7% | Not given |
| Eggs | −29.3% | Not given |
The USDA Economic Research Service built the outlook on September price data. Its 2027 ranges are wide; the food-at-home forecast runs from −5.2% to +7.5%.
Why beef is the outlier
The national average price of 100% ground beef was $6.792 a pound in September, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Economists at the University of Illinois point to a historically small cattle herd: 28.5 million beef cows on July 1, down 1% from a year earlier. Rebuilding requires keeping heifers off the market, which tightens supply further in the short run.
What to do with the numbers
Eggs, chicken, beans and lentils are the cheapest high-protein foods this year. Our new guide to high-protein eating on a budget compares options. If you are pricing the holidays, see our Thanksgiving cost guide.
“You shouldn't have to drive anywhere or cook anything. We'll bring the food to you. Fresh, portioned, gluten-free, macro-counted. Your job is just to eat.” — Lew Kizer, Founder, SmashMeals
Commentary, not medical advice
The SmashMeals perspective
Beef is the line on our own grocery bill that moved the most this year, and the herd numbers say it is not turning around quickly. That is one reason a prepared meal often costs less than people expect when they price out the ingredients, the waste and the time. If you cook at home, eggs, chicken and beans are this year's protein bargains. If you would rather not, we will do the cooking.
Frequently asked questions
How much will food prices rise in 2026?
USDA's October 23, 2026 outlook forecasts all food prices up 2.8% in 2026: 2.3% for groceries and 3.5% for restaurant and other food away from home.
Why are beef prices so high in 2026?
The U.S. beef cow herd is historically small, about 28.5 million head in July 2026, and rebuilding takes years. USDA forecasts beef and veal prices up 8.7% in 2026.
Are egg prices going down?
Yes. USDA forecasts egg prices down 29.3% for 2026 compared with 2025.
Sources and credits
Follow the original sources for context and verification. A reference is not an endorsement of SmashMeals.
- Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings (opens in a new tab)
USDA Economic Research Service
Why it matters: The forecasts and monthly changes.
- Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (APU0000703112) (opens in a new tab)
BLS via FRED, St. Louis Fed
Why it matters: The national average retail price per pound.
- Food inflation and the outlook for beef prices (opens in a new tab)
farmdoc daily, University of Illinois
Why it matters: Why beef is expensive: a historically small cattle herd.